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One Nation’s Surge: Shaking Up Australian Politics

July 12, 2026 · 2 min read

The polling booth of the future
Photo: jason ilagan · BY-ND 2.0
Verified across 3 independent sources. digi24.ro · theguardian.com · npr.org

Australia’s political landscape is undergoing a dramatic shift. The populist right-wing One Nation party, led by Pauline Hanson, has seen an unprecedented rise in recent polling, confounding election predictions and leaving analysts scratching their heads.

From Fringe to Front-Runner

Once considered a minor player, One Nation has burst onto the scene, moving from just 6% of the vote in the last federal election to being a top contender in recent surveys. In a notable DemosAU poll from June, the party secured 30% of the vote, outpacing the Labor party, which stood at 28%. This remarkable climb highlights a significant change in voter sentiment across Australia.

Making Waves in Key Regions

The impact of One Nation’s surge is particularly evident in regional areas. Polling data indicates that the party has overtaken both the Coalition (Liberal/National) and Labor in regional Queensland, a traditionally conservative heartland. This shift is not just theoretical; One Nation has already demonstrated its growing influence by securing its first seat in the Farrer by-election. Meanwhile, the Coalition itself has seen its support dwindle, dropping to just 18% of the primary vote in the same DemosAU survey.

An Unpredictable Election Ahead

The dramatic rise of One Nation means that the upcoming Australian federal election is now far more difficult to predict. The traditional two-party dominance is being challenged, and the outcome remains shrouded in uncertainty. Voters are clearly seeking alternatives, and One Nation has positioned itself as a compelling choice for a significant portion of the electorate.

Did you know…?

  • Q: Who leads the One Nation party?A: The One Nation party is led by its long-standing figurehead, Pauline Hanson.
  • Q: How much support did One Nation gain since the last election?A: One Nation’s support surged from 6% in the last federal election to 30% in a recent DemosAU poll.