The weather could become even more unpredictable in the coming years. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Niño conditions are already developing and are expected to strengthen rapidly by mid-2026. Alongside this, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) through its Climate Prediction Center (CPC) projects a high chance of very strong El Niño conditions by late 2026.
Anticipating a ‘Super El Niño’
Current climate analyses and weather forecasts describe a plausible scenario for what could be a ‘super El Niño’ or a record-strength event. This forecast is not mere speculation but is based on observed trends and advanced climate models.
Significant Humanitarian Impact Looming
Humanitarian organizations, such as ACAPS, are drawing attention to the devastating consequences such a phenomenon could have. Already vulnerable regions face a high risk of floods, prolonged droughts, the spread of diseases, and severe food insecurity. Numerous countries have already been listed as being at high risk of severe El Niño-related humanitarian impacts.
A ‘super El Niño’ could trigger a complex crisis, affecting millions of lives and amplifying existing public health and social stability challenges across various parts of the world.
Did you know…?
- What is El Niño? It is a natural climate phenomenon involving the abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, influencing global weather patterns.
- How does it affect us? It alters precipitation and temperature patterns worldwide, potentially causing, depending on the region, floods, droughts, heatwaves, or extreme cold.
